For writers of thrillers, the Cold War has been a rich topic. Then it ended. Then Al Quaeda came along, and it has been a gift for authors. Despite its dreadful credo and the pain it has engineered, the strategy of an organisation bent on destroying all things Western has formed the core of hundreds of novels since 2001. If we add in the asymmetric nature of the pan global war that has driven large scale re-organisation of armed forces, then we have another rich seam which authors have mined keenly. This asymmetric war against terrorism is science fiction coming to life, with UAVs, known grimly as Predators - surely soon to join common parlance as the 'Hoover' did for vacuuming homes in the UK (nothing to do with J Edgar Hoover at the FBI vacuuming up personal peccadilloes for use against VIPs and his bureaucratic enemies). Predators, high resolution satellite surveillance, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers - the new technology list grows daily and exponentially. This asymmetric war arrived at just the right time, both for novelists and armed forces. The Cold War was over and Western armed forces' financial budgets were being slashed - their role in a relatively peaceful world was under review (relatively being the operative word there). Armed forces and novelists alike were casting about for ideas. Then, a new type of warfare is born, with a new set of weapons and new, sexy technology! Al Quaeda has become passé. So, where will the next strong theme come from for thriller writers? I'm convinced that it is the rapid emergence of China as a financial, industrial and outward facing military power. Chinese emergence is being driven from the bottom up by a huge and fast growing population with rapidly rising expectations, ingenuity and hunger. The only practical way that this internal pressure can be controlled is to relieve it, gradually. The lid of the kettle - that is the that is the Chinese Communist Party - wants to stay firmly in place, so other ways have to be found to relieve growing internal pressure. So, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is growing its Navy, turning outward from a low priority coastal defence force to a global blue water force with worldwide mission objectives. Then they have manned space flight and a long term Golden Shield cyberwarfare program. The country has also ripped open western markets, with a huge migration of manufacturing plant and jobs alike - from the West to China, with its huge low-wage population. China also has a strong influence on strategic metal supplies (such as being a major producer of the rare earth metal neodymium); on the other hand, it is a major buyer of Australian iron ore, forming an important portion of Australia's foreign currency earnings. Financially, China is the largest foreign holder of US debt and one of the top three in the published gold bullion reserves list. So, the emergence of China is a theme ripe for writers of thriller novels!
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